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Turkey
Chronic current account deficit; unorthodox monetary policy
Correlation:-0.36
Best fit lag
3 months
Transmission Lag
0months
0
6
12
18
24
Drag to shift the CPI curve and find the transmission delay
Zoom:
US M2 Growth
Turkey CPI
When the Federal Reserve prints money, the inflation doesn't stay in America. Every country that trades in dollars absorbs it — just on a delay. Drag the lag slider to find exactly how long it takes.
Chronic current account deficit; unorthodox monetary policy
Best fit lag
3 months
Drag to shift the CPI curve and find the transmission delay
Countries with the fastest transmission share a common profile: high import dependence, dollar-denominated debt, limited central bank credibility, and currencies that move with the dollar.
Insulated countries either control capital flows, have credible independent central banks, or are commodity exporters whose revenues rise when dollar inflation pushes commodity prices up.
Countries where the standard transmission model breaks down — correlation inverts, safe haven dynamics dominate, or commodity revenues cancel out import costs.
Yield curve control distorts normal transmission — BoJ absorbs imported inflation pressure
Safe haven inflows during US inflation actually strengthen CHF, partially canceling import cost increases
Riyal peg creates immediate import cost transmission, but soaring oil revenues during dollar inflation neutralize net effect
As an oil exporter with sovereign wealth fund, Norway benefits from dollar-driven commodity price increases — a net positive during US expansion
The old saying was about economic recessions. It applies just as literally to inflation. When the US expands its money supply, commodity prices rise globally — because commodities are priced in dollars. Import costs rise everywhere. Central banks that can't defend their currencies import the inflation directly. The lag slider on this page shows the transmission delay — how many months it takes a decision made in Washington to show up in the price of bread in Nairobi.